News · Oct 31, 2026
Uzbekistan's 300,000-tonne sugar import quota from 2027: what cafés should do now
From 1 January 2027, Uzbekistan will cap white sugar imports at 300,000 tonnes a year, allocated to food manufacturers. We explain how the quota could reach the food costs of coffee shops, bakeries and dessert cafés, and what to do before New Year without panic buying or overstocking.
From 1 January 2027, Uzbekistan is introducing an annual import quota for white sugar of 300,000 tonnes. It is split evenly, with 100,000 tonnes each for beverage producers, confectionery makers and other food manufacturers. The quota comes from Cabinet of Ministers Resolution No. 417, which has not been made public. Spot and Gazeta.uz reported on it in late October 2026. The quota does not apply to cafés directly. Coffee shops, bakeries and dessert cafés may still feel it through supplier prices. The right move before New Year is to work out your exposure, not to raise menu prices.
What we know and what is still unclear
The resolution has not been published and is not on lex.uz. UzBev, the beverage producers' association, says the document is classified "for official use only". Sources disagree even on the date:
- Date. Gazeta.uz and Fergana give 30 July 2026, while Spot gives 31 July. Interfax, citing Spot's sources, says the decision was made back in June. The exact date will only be clear once the document is published.
- Who it covers. The quota applies to food manufacturers, not to HoReCa. Claims that "cafés won't be able to buy sugar" are wrong.
- Duties. The 20% excise tax on white sugar imports was abolished on 1 October 2025, but the 20% customs duty still applies. According to Gazeta.uz, the resolution does not set rates for imports within or above the quota.
- Imports above the quota. It is not yet known whether sugar can be imported beyond 300,000 tonnes, or on what terms. UzBev fears that in practice this will work as a hard volume cap rather than a tariff quota.
For scale, the country needs an estimated 650,000–700,000 tonnes a year. According to the Customs Committee, Uzbekistan imported 652.8 thousand tonnes of sugar and raw sugar in January–September 2026. That figure includes raw sugar, so it cannot be compared directly with the white sugar quota.
Key dates
| When | What is expected | What it means for cafés |
|---|---|---|
| November 2026 | The Cabinet approves the quota volume for 2027 | It will become clear whether the 300,000-tonne figure stands |
| By 1 December 2026 | An electronic auction platform for allocating quotas goes live | Suppliers will have a better view of import terms |
| Within a month of the government's order | The Ministry of Economy and Finance drafts Tax Code amendments with incentives for local sugar mills | Affects sugar mills, not cafés |
| Every 6 months | The quota volume may be reviewed | Prices may also shift during 2027 |
What this means for your venue
The risk depends on your format. Exposure is likely to be highest for coffee shops (syrups, lemonades, iced drinks), bakeries, patisseries and cafés with a large dessert display. An oshkhona or a shashlik grill without desserts will probably feel less impact. For them, any effect would come through wider supplier price rises on sauces, soft drinks and baked goods.
Here is why prices could rise. In January 2026, local mills offered sugar on the UZEX commodity exchange at 12,570–12,870 UZS/kg, while imported Russian sugar sold in Tashkent for 9,150 UZS/kg. These are different points in the market. Still, if imports are cheaper than mill sugar, restricting them may push prices up. Domestic production has also been shrinking: 165.5 thousand tonnes in the first half of 2025, compared with 332.6 thousand tonnes in the same period of 2023.
Worked example: how much sugar adds to food cost
The figures below are an illustration based on sample recipe cards, not a price forecast. The base price is 12,870 UZS/kg, the top of the January 2026 exchange range. For comparison, we model a 20% rise in the sugar price.
| Item (sample recipe card) | Sugar per serving | Sugar cost now | With sugar +20% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homemade lemonade, 400 ml | 30 g | ≈ 386 UZS | ≈ 463 UZS (+77) |
| Slice of medovik honey cake (1/8 of a cake) | 35 g | ≈ 450 UZS | ≈ 540 UZS (+90) |
| Cappuccino with 20 ml of bought-in syrup | sugar is built into the syrup price | depends on the supplier | depends on whether the supplier uses imported raw materials |
The takeaway: the sugar in a single serving costs very little. The bigger increases are more likely on ready-made syrups, confectionery and drinks you buy from manufacturers, because the quota applies to them. That makes the conversation with your suppliers the priority.
What to do now: 5 steps before New Year
- Measure how much sweet items contribute to your costs. List the items that use sugar, syrups, condensed milk, ready-made desserts and soft drinks. Find out what share of revenue they bring in and how much sugar each one contains, in UZS. This is much easier if your recipe cards are already set up in your POS system.
- Ask your suppliers three questions. Are your raw materials imported or local? Will you receive a quota, or buy from companies that do? Are you planning to change prices from January 2027? Ask the suppliers of your sugar, syrups, confectionery and drinks.
- Lock in the price if it works for you. Ask for it to be fixed in your contract or an addendum until the end of Q1 2027. Avoid building up large stocks. Sugar keeps for a long time, but cash tied up in the storeroom isn't working for you.
- Rerun your recipe cards against a scenario. Factor in a possible cost increase for sweet items and see how it affects your margin. Treat this as a planning benchmark, not a forecast. Look at where you could cut sugar in a recipe or reduce the syrup dose without losing flavour.
- Watch for official documents and don't change the menu early. Wait for the resolution to be published, the quota to be approved in November and the Tax Code amendments. Change menu prices only once suppliers send you actual new prices.
How to track this in your POS system
If your system deducts ingredients from stock by recipe card with each sale, you can see ingredient usage for every menu item. When a supplier raises prices, your recipe cards make it easy to spot which desserts and drinks have become less profitable. In AliPos, inventory, recipe cards and stocktaking are included in the Standard plan ($39 per month). Learn more about the setup for your format: patisseries and bakeries and cafés and coffee shops. If prices do go up, a seasonal menu can help absorb the increase.
FAQ
Does the quota apply to cafés and coffee shops?
No. It is allocated among producers of beverages, confectionery and other food products. Cafés will only feel it through supplier prices.
Will sugar get more expensive from 2027?
There is no official forecast. UzBev warns of higher production costs and inflationary pressure. Actual prices will become clear once the quota is approved and the auctions begin.
Should I stock up on sugar?
Large stockpiles aren't worth it. It is better to fix the current price in your contract until the end of Q1 2027 and keep your working capital free.
Where can I find the text of Resolution No. 417?
It is not officially available anywhere yet. The document is classified and is not on lex.uz. Its reference details and key points come from reports by Gazeta.uz and Kun.uz.
Shakar importi kvotasi kafelarga to'g'ridan-to'g'ri ta'sir qiladimi?
Yo'q, kvota oziq-ovqat ishlab chiqaruvchilariga tegishli. Kafe va qandolatxonalar uni yetkazib beruvchilar narxi orqali sezishi mumkin.
Want to see the cost of every lemonade and dessert in UZS before your supplier sends a new price list? Check out AliPos pricing or request a setup. We'll migrate your menu and recipe cards for you.
