News · Nov 12, 2026
Food Prices Up 1% in October, Inflation at 6.5%: 5 Food Cost Steps for Cafes
According to Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee, food prices rose 1% in October 2026 and annual inflation reached 6.5%. Eggs, meat and vegetables rose the most. Here's how cafes and restaurants can recalculate recipe cards, menu prices and delivery prices before the December banquet season.
In early November 2026, Uzbekistan's National Statistics Committee published its October figures. Food prices rose 1% month over month, and annual inflation climbed to 6.5%, up from 6.4% in September. Eggs, meat, milk and vegetables went up. Sugar and some fruits got cheaper. Before the December banquet and corporate party season, cafes should recalculate food cost for meat, egg and vegetable dishes and adjust prices selectively. Base the numbers on your own supplier invoices, not on the 1% average.
What happened: October and year-over-year figures
According to National Statistics Committee data cited by Daryo.uz, overall prices rose 0.6% in October. Food rose 1%, non-food goods 0.2% and services 0.6%. Anhor.uz reports the same figures in its review, but the primary source is the National Statistics Committee.
For the kitchen, the annual trend matters more. According to Spot.uz, food prices rose by an average of 6.4% over 12 months. Meat rose much faster.
| Product | October 2026 | 12 months | What it means for the kitchen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamb | +1.4% | +19.5% | Plov, shashlik, shurpa: recalculate these first |
| Bone-in beef | +1.2% | +15.6% | Lagman, soups, stews |
| Ground meat | +1.1% | +14.8% | Manti, samsa, cutlets, burgers |
| Eggs | +5.2% | +12.7% | Breakfasts, baked goods, salads |
| Milk | +1% | +5% | Coffee, porridge, desserts |
| Cucumbers / tomatoes | +9% / +8.8% | — | Achichuk, vegetable salads |
| Bell peppers / potatoes | +8.7% / +5.3% | — | Side dishes, fries, stuffed dishes |
| Sugar | −2.2% | — | Desserts, lemonades, kompot |
| Lemons / grapes / apples | −15% / −7.5% / −3% | — | Seasonal drinks and fruit platters |
One common claim needs correcting. Vegetables did not get cheaper in October. They rose faster than meat. Only sugar and some fruits got cheaper.
What this means for your business
- The 1% average is misleading. Lamb makes up a large share of the cost of plov, and it is up 19.5% over the year. If you haven't changed the menu price since last autumn, that dish's margin has already dropped noticeably.
- Tashkent has it harder. Annual inflation ranges from 5.5% in Syrdarya region to 7.4% in Tashkent. Venues in the capital need a stricter recalculation.
- The market is already raising prices. In September, prices in the "restaurants and hotels" category were up 7.5% year over year (National Statistics Committee via UzDaily). That is above overall inflation.
- Don't expect a slowdown. On November 4, the Central Bank kept its key rate at 14% and raised its end-2026 inflation forecast to 7% (Vzglyad.uz). The next meeting is on December 16.
Neither the National Statistics Committee data nor the media reports include wholesale prices for food service. Use your own October–November invoices for the math.
Example: food cost of plov
The figures below are illustrative. Plug in the numbers from your own recipe card. The formula is food cost = portion cost ÷ menu price × 100.
- A year ago: lamb 9,000 UZS, rice 3,000, carrots and onions 2,000, oil 2,000. Portion cost was 16,000 UZS, the price 50,000 UZS and food cost 32%.
- Now: lamb is up 19.5%, to 10,755 UZS. Portion cost is 17,755 UZS. At the same price, food cost is 35.5%.
- To get back to 32%: 17,755 ÷ 0.32 ≈ 55,500 UZS. Round to 55,000 UZS, a 10% price increase.
For reference, CIS markets treat 25–30% as a normal food cost for a cafe and anything above 35% as critical. This is a benchmark, not an Uzbek standard. For a detailed walkthrough of recipe cards, read "Recipe Card in 5 Steps: Sample Calculation for Plov and Lagman".
What to do now: 5 steps before the New Year season
- Recalculate recipe cards for high-risk groups (by November 20). Start with dishes where lamb, beef, ground meat, eggs or milk make up more than half of the cost. Then move on to salads made with cucumbers, tomatoes and peppers. Use prices from your latest invoices.
- Lock in supplier prices for December. Sign a specification with the price and volume for the month, or make a partial prepayment for meat against confirmed banquets. A verbal agreement guarantees nothing.
- Raise prices selectively. Food accounted for 56.5% of household spending in 2025, so guests are price-sensitive. Raise prices only on dishes whose food cost is above target and leave the rest alone. If a dish needs a big price increase, adjust the recipe or portion size, or replace the dish. That is better than scaring guests off with the price.
- Add items based on cheaper ingredients. Lemons, grapes, apples and sugar work well for lemonades, banquet fruit platters, desserts and kompot. Adding seasonal vegetable items doesn't pay off right now, because vegetables have gone up.
- Recalculate delivery separately. Public estimates put aggregator commissions at 20–35%, plus 3,000–5,000 UZS for packaging. Take the exact rate from your contract. With a 25% commission and 4,000 UZS packaging, a 55,000 UZS plov leaves you 37,250 UZS. Measured against that amount, food cost is already 47.7%. You need a separate delivery menu with its own prices.
Banquets and corporate events: how to avoid losses
- In the banquet contract, fix the menu price as of the booking date and take a prepayment. Use it to buy meat in advance.
- Recalculate costs for bookings accepted at old prices in September–October. Where possible, swap some of the lamb main courses for poultry or vegetable starters while keeping the same portion sizes.
- Add fruit and sweet items made from cheaper ingredients to the banquet menu. This can improve the overall margin of the set.
Another margin lever: your tax regime
Under Presidential Decree No. UP-100 of May 26, 2026, food service businesses can choose a simplified 6% VAT with no input VAT credit. They can also stay on the general regime with a 40% refund of VAT paid. The regime affects how you compare supplier prices with and without VAT. Under the simplified regime, input VAT becomes part of your cost. We covered the reporting changes in "Reporting Under Simplified 6% VAT: New Forms and 5 Steps for Cafes". Before you decide, check the current version of the decree on lex.uz.
How to speed up recalculation with an accounting system
If your recipe cards live in a notebook, recalculating the whole menu takes a long time. AliPos (Standard plan) includes inventory with stock receipts and usage, stock counts, recipe cards and recipes. Every sale deducts ingredients according to the recipe card, and any shortfall at a stock count shows up as a number. The Pro plan adds integration with the Yandex Eats, Uzum Tezkor and Yemak aggregators. AliPos also works for teahouses (choyxona) that sell plov to go. You can compare plans on the pricing page.
FAQ
Do I need to raise prices if food is only up 1%?
Not across the whole menu. Look at the annual increase for your own ingredients: lamb is up 19.5% over the year and eggs 12.7%. Raise prices on dishes whose food cost has gone above your target.
How do I calculate a dish's food cost in UZS?
Divide the portion cost by the menu price and multiply by 100. To find the new price at your target food cost, divide the portion cost by the target percentage: 17,755 ÷ 0.32 ≈ 55,500 UZS.
What got cheaper, and what can I add to the menu?
Sugar (−2.2%), lemons (−15%), grapes (−7.5%) and apples (−3%). Lemonades, desserts and fruit platters are a good fit. Vegetables went up in October.
When should I drop a dish, and when should I change the recipe?
If a dish needs a big price increase to reach a healthy food cost, try changing the recipe or portion size first. If it also sells poorly, take it off the menu.
What inflation should I build into 2027 prices?
The Central Bank expects 7% at the end of 2026 and doesn't expect to reach 5% until the end of 2027. Plan for purchase prices to rise by more than 6%.
If you want to run inventory and recipe cards in one system, check out AliPos pricing or request a setup. We'll call you back within 15 minutes to go over the details of your venue.
